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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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