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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA
Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whe ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS ON RISE; EARNINGS FALL ON LOWER SELLING PRICES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.84* ...
Wednesday, 25 June 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET REACHED FRESH LOWS FOR THE YEAR, SAYS INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a slight decrease, but this image of stability is merely representative of freight rat ...
Tuesday, 24 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINER TARGETS RP 313 BILLION IPO
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal miner PT Mitrabara Adiperdana is aiming to raise up to Rp 313 billion to Rp 368 billion (approximately $26.133 millio ...
Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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