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Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand before China starts taking more iron ore from Brazil, most likely during the second half of the year,. As a result, BIMCO said that “our forecast for June/July: BIMCO believes that the level of Capesize TC average rates will stay around USD 12,000- 22,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will feel the supply pressure and stay around USD 4,000-9,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
According to the market outlook, “a trend has been developing over some years now and going forward, more of the same is expected. This trend is a continued Asia-biased dry bulk market, where China is completely dominant, dwarfing the slow but steady Indian import growth, while the rest of the world only grows imports slowly. Moreover, the trend in commodities became increasingly focused on coal and iron ore trades that are taking an even larger share of the pie going forward. This trend favours the larger bulkers. As the big mines in Australia and Brazil have scaled up iron ore output significantly in 2014 and will do so in the coming two years, the price of the commodity has been under pressure.
Such a development should benefit international trading at the expense of China’s higher-cost, domestically-produced iron ore of poorer quality. Is that what is happening? Yes and no. China has increased its iron ore imports significantly (up by 21% in the first four months of 2014 from a year on) as good merchants buy at the right price, but domestic production keeps up (so far) despite the obvious cost pressure. They are doing so at a very steady level seen during the past 5 years. Conclusion: Don’t expect China to become 100% reliant on imports while enjoying the lower market price. The current iron ore price is around USD 90 per ton, down from 130-140 per ton in H2-2013″, BIMCO noted.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand, the first half of 2013 “was a low and flat freight rate environment, so in that sense so much more has happened in 2014. Normally, volatility is good for operators, but when the past two months have been flat, there is only some comfort in knowing that the year-to-date BDI average is up by 51% (end-May). Below the surface, Capesize earnings are up by 158% to USD 14,504 per day, Panamaxes up by 22% (to USD 9,208 per day), Supramaxes up by 28% (to USD 10,906 per day) and Handysizes up by 26% (to USD 9,181 per day), he noted.
Supply wise, BIMCO’s report said that “the dry bulk fleet has grown by another 121 ships in the past two months (0.9% in DWT). The expansion has been easy in the Capesize segment, with only 10 new deliveries, as compared to roughly 30 new ships flowing into each of the other three sub-segments. For the full year, our estimates have been slightly upwardly adjusted, now to reach 52 million DWT of newbuilt deliveries, meaning that the fleet will grow by 5.3% (up from 49 million DWT).
Order-book activity has been slowing down since January. The order book now holds 1,989 ships (163.4 million DWT) for future delivery and is still heavy on the Panamax side. One hundred and nine ships had left the fleet by the end of May 2014, equal to 6.6 million DWT. During the first five months of 2013 no less than 12.2 million DWT left the fleet. BIMCO remains firm on the forecast of 14 million DWT to be sold for demolition for the full year, significantly down from last years’ 22.2 million DWT. Demolished tonnage is only marginally younger on average this year. With expectations of improved markets just around the corner, BIMCO forecasts lower levels of demolition for the coming years as well”, the report noted.
It added that “the Handysize fleet started to grow again in April, following nine successive months of contraction. The total Handysize fleet remains shy of the record 89.17 million DWT fleet size in 1985, currently at 87.8 million DWT. BIMCO forecasts the Handysize fleet to grow slowly and thus remain South of the record size in 2014 and potentially in 2015 too.
In opposition to this is the Panamax segment, which with little hesitation, sets a new fleet size record every day. Currently growing at 8.7% on a year-on-year basis, standing at 191 million DWT at the end of May, the 200 million DWT fleet size threshold is likely to be reached before year-end”, BIMCO said.
Demand
Demand-wise South American grain exports finally got under way. According to BIMCO, “the lower export figures from April being only on a par with 2012 illustrates the delayed take-off in shipments. Brazil has been the major exporter during Q2, while Argentina delivered more steadily throughout Q2 and Q3. Ship broking company SSY expects a combined 35.8 million tons (mt) of soya exports in Q2, with 30.8 mt in Q3.
The strength of the current upturn depends on Asia’s appetite, as all growth stems from that region. The Atlantic basin has been awash with ships during most of 2014, putting downward pressure on freight rates for Panamax and Supramax ships in particular. Freight rates for a trans-Atlantic round-voyage, which were hitting a three-year high by mid-December 2013 (USD 20,500 per day), subsequently experienced four straight months of losses to hit USD 2,500 per day for Panamaxes. Since mid-April, Panamaxes have tripled earnings on the back of demand, finally meeting expectations. Supramax ships are still in the doldrums, failing to follow suit with big brother so far.
The optimism built up in H2-2013 has all but evaporated. BIMCO still expects stronger earnings as we enter into H2-2014, but the world fleet is capable of catering to a much higher level of demand than it does today. This is what makes the road forward full of air pockets, with owners and operators trying to hit the optimum speed in a quest to utilise their ships better”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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