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Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand before China starts taking more iron ore from Brazil, most likely during the second half of the year,. As a result, BIMCO said that “our forecast for June/July: BIMCO believes that the level of Capesize TC average rates will stay around USD 12,000- 22,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will feel the supply pressure and stay around USD 4,000-9,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
According to the market outlook, “a trend has been developing over some years now and going forward, more of the same is expected. This trend is a continued Asia-biased dry bulk market, where China is completely dominant, dwarfing the slow but steady Indian import growth, while the rest of the world only grows imports slowly. Moreover, the trend in commodities became increasingly focused on coal and iron ore trades that are taking an even larger share of the pie going forward. This trend favours the larger bulkers. As the big mines in Australia and Brazil have scaled up iron ore output significantly in 2014 and will do so in the coming two years, the price of the commodity has been under pressure.
Such a development should benefit international trading at the expense of China’s higher-cost, domestically-produced iron ore of poorer quality. Is that what is happening? Yes and no. China has increased its iron ore imports significantly (up by 21% in the first four months of 2014 from a year on) as good merchants buy at the right price, but domestic production keeps up (so far) despite the obvious cost pressure. They are doing so at a very steady level seen during the past 5 years. Conclusion: Don’t expect China to become 100% reliant on imports while enjoying the lower market price. The current iron ore price is around USD 90 per ton, down from 130-140 per ton in H2-2013″, BIMCO noted.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand, the first half of 2013 “was a low and flat freight rate environment, so in that sense so much more has happened in 2014. Normally, volatility is good for operators, but when the past two months have been flat, there is only some comfort in knowing that the year-to-date BDI average is up by 51% (end-May). Below the surface, Capesize earnings are up by 158% to USD 14,504 per day, Panamaxes up by 22% (to USD 9,208 per day), Supramaxes up by 28% (to USD 10,906 per day) and Handysizes up by 26% (to USD 9,181 per day), he noted.
Supply wise, BIMCO’s report said that “the dry bulk fleet has grown by another 121 ships in the past two months (0.9% in DWT). The expansion has been easy in the Capesize segment, with only 10 new deliveries, as compared to roughly 30 new ships flowing into each of the other three sub-segments. For the full year, our estimates have been slightly upwardly adjusted, now to reach 52 million DWT of newbuilt deliveries, meaning that the fleet will grow by 5.3% (up from 49 million DWT).
Order-book activity has been slowing down since January. The order book now holds 1,989 ships (163.4 million DWT) for future delivery and is still heavy on the Panamax side. One hundred and nine ships had left the fleet by the end of May 2014, equal to 6.6 million DWT. During the first five months of 2013 no less than 12.2 million DWT left the fleet. BIMCO remains firm on the forecast of 14 million DWT to be sold for demolition for the full year, significantly down from last years’ 22.2 million DWT. Demolished tonnage is only marginally younger on average this year. With expectations of improved markets just around the corner, BIMCO forecasts lower levels of demolition for the coming years as well”, the report noted.
It added that “the Handysize fleet started to grow again in April, following nine successive months of contraction. The total Handysize fleet remains shy of the record 89.17 million DWT fleet size in 1985, currently at 87.8 million DWT. BIMCO forecasts the Handysize fleet to grow slowly and thus remain South of the record size in 2014 and potentially in 2015 too.
In opposition to this is the Panamax segment, which with little hesitation, sets a new fleet size record every day. Currently growing at 8.7% on a year-on-year basis, standing at 191 million DWT at the end of May, the 200 million DWT fleet size threshold is likely to be reached before year-end”, BIMCO said.
Demand
Demand-wise South American grain exports finally got under way. According to BIMCO, “the lower export figures from April being only on a par with 2012 illustrates the delayed take-off in shipments. Brazil has been the major exporter during Q2, while Argentina delivered more steadily throughout Q2 and Q3. Ship broking company SSY expects a combined 35.8 million tons (mt) of soya exports in Q2, with 30.8 mt in Q3.
The strength of the current upturn depends on Asia’s appetite, as all growth stems from that region. The Atlantic basin has been awash with ships during most of 2014, putting downward pressure on freight rates for Panamax and Supramax ships in particular. Freight rates for a trans-Atlantic round-voyage, which were hitting a three-year high by mid-December 2013 (USD 20,500 per day), subsequently experienced four straight months of losses to hit USD 2,500 per day for Panamaxes. Since mid-April, Panamaxes have tripled earnings on the back of demand, finally meeting expectations. Supramax ships are still in the doldrums, failing to follow suit with big brother so far.
The optimism built up in H2-2013 has all but evaporated. BIMCO still expects stronger earnings as we enter into H2-2014, but the world fleet is capable of catering to a much higher level of demand than it does today. This is what makes the road forward full of air pockets, with owners and operators trying to hit the optimum speed in a quest to utilise their ships better”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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