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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
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