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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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