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Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our first analysis on the dry bulk market. The dry bulk market managed to reach multi year highs over 2013, with the final fourth months of the year, reminiscing of a healthier market. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the year near its higher point since the 2008 crisis and this is a clear indication of things to come, provided that ship owners don't succumb to the same mistakes of over ordering, like they did last time around.
Newbuilding wise, 2013 proved to be a record breaking year since 2008, but then again, this can be attributed, mostly, on the ship owners' attempt to lower the average cost of their fleet, by investing on newbuilding vessels which come at a much lower price than their 2007-2008 counterparts. As such, and with prices rising again, we cxpect that 2014 will probably not be that "hot", unless of course the pace of freight rates' increase is even higher. In that case, owners could be tempted to continue their newbuilding ordering spree.
In its latest analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted that in the coming weeks, the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 January 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA FREIGHT IS NOW DOWN IN THE $8S AND STILL DROPPING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates sliding slowly for the start of 2014. Several players cvrd over the holidays and the rate decline was som ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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