We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our first analysis on the dry bulk market. The dry bulk market managed to reach multi year highs over 2013, with the final fourth months of the year, reminiscing of a healthier market. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the year near its higher point since the 2008 crisis and this is a clear indication of things to come, provided that ship owners don't succumb to the same mistakes of over ordering, like they did last time around.
Newbuilding wise, 2013 proved to be a record breaking year since 2008, but then again, this can be attributed, mostly, on the ship owners' attempt to lower the average cost of their fleet, by investing on newbuilding vessels which come at a much lower price than their 2007-2008 counterparts. As such, and with prices rising again, we cxpect that 2014 will probably not be that "hot", unless of course the pace of freight rates' increase is even higher. In that case, owners could be tempted to continue their newbuilding ordering spree.
In its latest analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted that in the coming weeks, the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 13 January 14
INDONESIAN ORE BAN TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINESE ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says today that Indonesia's ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore will have limited impact on Chinese aluminium pro ...
Sunday, 12 January 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK - SOLYM CARRIERS
Wish You A very Happy New Year
COALspot.com: The market has dropped quite a lot as expected due to holidays and probably also the effect of ban o ...
Friday, 10 January 14
DECISION ON ORE EXPORT BAN WILL BE MADE TOMORROW: INDUSTRY MINISTER, JG SAYS
Industry Minister M.S. Hidayat dismissed reports on Thursday that the government had made a decision on the matter. “We will only make a decis ...
Friday, 10 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% ON WEEK IN WEEK ENDED SATURDAY 4 JANUARY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT EASES ORE EXPORT BAN
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government has finally agreed to ease the ore-export ban just a few days before the Sunday deadline amid protests from ...
|
|
|
Showing 3911 to 3915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
|
| |
| |
|
