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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO pre ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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