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Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
 "While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns" - Theodore Ntalakos
Earlier in 2013 we were looking at the fleet and the order book profiles trying to find some signs that would imply whether we were closer to a recovery in order to substantiate further investing in shipping, Theodore Ntalakos, New building / SnP Broker in Intermodal says in his latest research report.
Looking back, we can see that, to-date, it was a good time to invest irrespectively of whether the recent surge was a result of the increased demand for seaborne trade or a change in sentiment that the worst is behind us, or a mixture of both, Theodore Ntalakos noted.
Intermodal's analyst added that, this time, looking at a snapshot of the fleet and order book profile in the beginning of 2013 and today, we can partly explain the recent surge in freight rates as in some segments the trade grew faster than the fleet. On the other hand, in a year of record low average freight rates and record deliveries, even a reduction of 7% in the order book means that more than half of the dry bulk carriers on order as of January 2013 were “re-ordered”. We count around 850 new orders to date.
He added that, the revived interest in new buildings came at the right time for many shipyards, which were urgently looking to fill their 2014 and 2015 slots. The demand has surpassed any expectation since many of the biggest shipbuilders have already sold most of their 2016 berths; not only that but they are now asking a premium for 2015 deliveries which will be squeezed into their production line. The increased demand obviously drove prices up. For many the extent of this price increase cannot be substantiated but it's only logical that many of the shipyards are trying to take advantage of the current market and make sure that the new orders will not make them suffer any losses. The actual number of vessels on order as well as the order book to in service fleet ratio have both receded in all sizes except the Handymax -Ultramax segment where we have seen an increase.
Comparing the dry bulk fleet in service between January 2013 and today we can calculate an increase of 6% in terms of deadweight (in 2012 the fleet grew by 10%). However, there are two more months left in 2013 and assuming there will be some slippage, the fleet will grow by about 8%. So far, with the exception of the fleet of Handies (20,000-40,000dwt) that did not grow at all (there was only a marginal increase of the total dwt and a reduction of the number of vessels), all other sizes grew between 5-7%. One interesting finding is that the Capesize fleet (the 180,000dwt class) has only grown by 3% so far in 2013, which partly explains why China's recent restocking has assisted the recent boom in freight rates.
Concluding his analysis, Theodore Ntalakos said that, while there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has shown that if solid demand is there then shipping offers very good returns. In our humble opinion, for the medium to long term, the demand for seaborne trade will be there and so will healthy market returns.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 December 13
QUIET FREIGHT MARKET DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: The market was soft this week with all indices down. However towards second half of the week the futures on segments was firming up.
...
Friday, 20 December 13
US PRODUCED 2.71% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 20 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET SLUMPS AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As has been the case in recent years, the dry bulk market has been on a downward trend ahead of the Holiday Season for a large part of the world. Th ...
Thursday, 19 December 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for more than three years over the three-month period to November 201 ...
Wednesday, 18 December 13
SNP ACTIVITY IN CHINA SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN - CHRISTOS TRAGEAS
Approaching the end of the year, SnP activity in China seems to be slowing down in comparison to the first half of this quarter, as most Chinese Shi ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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