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Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding from their recent peak of USD 42k per day down to today’s levels of USD 28k per day, said Yannis Olziersky, SnP Broker, from Intermodal.
In addition to the strong Capesize market, which found support from the recent Chinese restocking and strong demand for iron ore, chartering activity for the other segments has also improved and is surging on the back of increased shipments of grains from the US Gulf and the Black Sea.
According to Intermodal's weekly report, The dry bulk market, it seems, is witnessing a U-turn in fate; bullishness, although restrained, has return to many market players since to them it appears as if the worst phase is now behind us and the market is expected to advance at a faster pace compared to that of last year. This restrained optimism has had its impact on second hand sales as well as on the new building market, as a significant number of vessels are changing hands at prices well above last done deals and sometimes well above Sellers’ ideas, due to the fact that competition between Buyers, in an effort to secure tonnage, is driving values well above recent levels.
Same story with the new building market, where slots at good shipyards are now scarce and offered prices have surged and are about 10-15pct higher compared to orders that were placed during 1H of 2013.
What will happen next? Are we on a firm recovery track or were the latest positive developments in freight rates based only on a typical seasonal spike? Having foresight in a volatile industry like shipping, which is highly dependent on so many different parameters, is difficult and dangerous to do.
Yannis Olziersky added in his research report that, on the other hand there are some irrefutable facts which cannot be overlooked. Seaborne commodities have increased about 6pct compared to last year; fleet growth increased about 5.8pct (year to date), which is the lowest we have seen during the last couple of years. Taking also into consideration that the world economy is on a recovery phase and that the global GDP is projected to increase at a higher rate compared to previous years it is expected that dry bulk commodities will keep trading at higher volumes compared to 2013.
At the same time it is expected that today’s rates will face a correction once Chinese iron ore inventories are replenished and the strong grain season comes to an end, he commended. There is no doubt that the market does not have the ability to grow at the same pace we experienced the past couple of months since the overcapacity issue is still there and uncertainty over the global economy remains despite better forecasts.
However, what is more important to note is that dry bulk fundamentals are expected to improve and as a result the average earnings for the years ahead look to be better compared to previous ones. Hence, taking a long term perspective and in the event that the global economy will remain firm on its recovery path, the demolition market keeps active and the new building ordering will hold near its current pace (i.e. at a more moderate pace compared with booming years), we see substantial signs to be optimistic and expect to have an overall upside in freight rates over the coming years, Yannis Olziersky concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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