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Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding from their recent peak of USD 42k per day down to today’s levels of USD 28k per day, said Yannis Olziersky, SnP Broker, from Intermodal.
In addition to the strong Capesize market, which found support from the recent Chinese restocking and strong demand for iron ore, chartering activity for the other segments has also improved and is surging on the back of increased shipments of grains from the US Gulf and the Black Sea.
According to Intermodal's weekly report, The dry bulk market, it seems, is witnessing a U-turn in fate; bullishness, although restrained, has return to many market players since to them it appears as if the worst phase is now behind us and the market is expected to advance at a faster pace compared to that of last year. This restrained optimism has had its impact on second hand sales as well as on the new building market, as a significant number of vessels are changing hands at prices well above last done deals and sometimes well above Sellers’ ideas, due to the fact that competition between Buyers, in an effort to secure tonnage, is driving values well above recent levels.
Same story with the new building market, where slots at good shipyards are now scarce and offered prices have surged and are about 10-15pct higher compared to orders that were placed during 1H of 2013.
What will happen next? Are we on a firm recovery track or were the latest positive developments in freight rates based only on a typical seasonal spike? Having foresight in a volatile industry like shipping, which is highly dependent on so many different parameters, is difficult and dangerous to do.
Yannis Olziersky added in his research report that, on the other hand there are some irrefutable facts which cannot be overlooked. Seaborne commodities have increased about 6pct compared to last year; fleet growth increased about 5.8pct (year to date), which is the lowest we have seen during the last couple of years. Taking also into consideration that the world economy is on a recovery phase and that the global GDP is projected to increase at a higher rate compared to previous years it is expected that dry bulk commodities will keep trading at higher volumes compared to 2013.
At the same time it is expected that today’s rates will face a correction once Chinese iron ore inventories are replenished and the strong grain season comes to an end, he commended. There is no doubt that the market does not have the ability to grow at the same pace we experienced the past couple of months since the overcapacity issue is still there and uncertainty over the global economy remains despite better forecasts.
However, what is more important to note is that dry bulk fundamentals are expected to improve and as a result the average earnings for the years ahead look to be better compared to previous ones. Hence, taking a long term perspective and in the event that the global economy will remain firm on its recovery path, the demolition market keeps active and the new building ordering will hold near its current pace (i.e. at a more moderate pace compared with booming years), we see substantial signs to be optimistic and expect to have an overall upside in freight rates over the coming years, Yannis Olziersky concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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