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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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