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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 20 September 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 20.30 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 20 September 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 31.14 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN H1
COALspot.com : Colombia’s coal exports fell by 20.59 percent in June 2013 compared to Colombia’s May's export of 7,633,579 MT.
Colom ...
Thursday, 19 September 13
CAPESIZE : AVERAGE DAILY EARNINGS HAVE GAINED ALMOST USD 6K WOW - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The rates in Feast are still firm this week even the activity calmed down a bit as chrtrs are not in a rush to cover even their end Sept carg ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
IRON ORE AND ZINC ARE BEST PERFORMING MINING SECTORS IN CURRENT LOW PRICE, HIGH COST ENVIRONMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
With the fall in commodity prices, cash margins in the mining industry have come under pressure. Accordingly, producers and investors are placing in ...
Wednesday, 18 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUED TO ADVANCE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market continued to advance at a very fast pace, with the BDI closing off the week north ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
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