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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with t ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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