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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 07 November 13
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY'S RISING WATER CHALLENGE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Water poses a variety of business risks for the energy industry, and could play an influential role in shaping the future energy supply mix, accordi ...
Thursday, 07 November 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA ROUNDS ARE SEEING BIDS AT AROUND $16K
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS LOST GROUND WHILE SUPRAS AND HANDIES HELD ON TO THEIR GAINS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable- )
A mirror image of the week prior for the Dry Bulk market, as once more the bigger size segments los ...
Wednesday, 06 November 13
WILL NEW ORDERS DRIVE THE MARKET DOWN AGAIN ONCE DELIVERIES COMMENCE
"While there are many concerns on whether the new orders will drive the market down again once deliveries commence, the second half of 2013 has ...
Tuesday, 05 November 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SEES DROP IN COAL EXPORTS W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 4, Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.77 m ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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