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Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
 COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or just another momentary spike which will deflate at the first signs of trouble?, said Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal in his latest weekly report.
According to Christos Manztios, the dry bulk market, despite having been on a roller coaster ride since early spring, has now entered the seasonally strong months of October and November with renewed optimism. But this might come at price: Renewed optimism might result in a flurry of new-building activity/ordering which could, if done in excess, ultimately tip the scales against owners once again.
Intermodal's analyst Manztios said his latest report, albeit the improved market conditions, new ordering have seemingly started to slow down as the lack of availability of early slots (now seeing early to mid-2016) coupled with rising NB prices have both started to take their toll on buying interest. During September the dry bulk market witnessed a total of 58 dry orders, with Ultramaxes holding the lion's share and numbering 22 in total, while Handies closely followed in volume with 21.
For the time being new building capacity seems to be waning, with several shipbuilders already limiting production in many of their facilities and overstretching their slots’ schedule. This has worked fine so far, but as freight earnings start to improve and in turn we see ever growing demand for new orders, shipbuilders will inevitably seeks to remobilize their unused resources and step back up to full production, plaguing the industry with excess tonnage supply once again, Intermodal weekly report said.
According to Intermodal weekly report, Greek owners top the list for NB orders placed so far this year in terms of both number of vessels and dwt (131 vessels/11.7 mill dwt) followed by Japanese owners in terms of number of ships (106 vessels/4.2mill dwt) and Chinese owners in terms of dwt (96 vessels/6 mill dwt). Greek buyers also dominated the second hand market as well, with one in every four vessels that changed hand during 2013 ending up to a Greek buyer and at ever higher prices.
This is epitomized in the likes of sales such as that of the M/V Cape Challenger (180kdwt blt 2013 IHI) and M/V JK Pioneer (180kdwt blt 2013 HHI) which were reported sold reg USD 52mill each, a sharp appreciation in price when compared (especially taking into account the fact that the sale was included by a below market charter attached of USD 11,000/day till May 2014) with the sale of M/V Bulk Canada (180kdwt blt 2012 Hanjin Philippines) reg USD 41.25mill back in August.
"This trend is not solely attributed to the freight rally in Capes but also backed by both an overall positive perception as to the prospects of the market from 2014 onwards and the still attractively-priced assets across all size segments (at least in comparison with pre-2012 levels where a 5 year old Cape was priced above USD 36.0 mill, a 5 year old Panamax above USD 26.5 mill and a 5 year old Supramax was above USD 24,5 mill)," according to Intermodal's analyst Manztios.
Caution (and eye-brows) may have been raised as to the potential longevity of the recent run-up in freight rates, but it doesn’t look like the upward momentum is over just yet. Things may have slowed down for Capes, but with their average freight rates still holding above 30,000/day and with the rest of the size segments slowing showing signs of catching up in gains, it will all depend to what extent this positive momentum can hold and how well these new market conditions will hold up in the first quarter of 2014 a period in the year that tends to be considerably softer and a good indicator as to how well the market will perform during the whole year, Christos Manztios a SnP Broker from Intermodal concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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