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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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