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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 04 November 13
API 8 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.65% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2014 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.24 percept W-W on Friday 1 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
H2' 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE ( SWAPS) SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 0.24 percept week on week on Friday 1 ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX FELL 13.61 PCT W-W
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to soften on the cape and panamax sectors , however the supramax and handy size remained fairly firm.
...
Saturday, 02 November 13
DRY BULK SHIPPERS AREN'T CELEBRATING, BUT THEIR SILENCE IS GOLDEN - MARKET REALIST
In October, performance for major dry bulk shipping companies was mixed. Companies like DryShips Inc. (DRYS) had pulled back more than Diana Shippin ...
Friday, 01 November 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 0.9 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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