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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 January 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE TO $ 61.25 FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.32 pmt month on month on Friday 3 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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