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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
INDONESIA RAISES COAL PRICE THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.59 / MT ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
NEWCASTLE COAL TERMINAL'S COAL EXPORTS SLIDE TO 3.54 MMT W/E 30 DECEMBER 13
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 30, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.54 ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
US COAL OUTPUT SLIDES 9 PCT WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 06 January 14
ARGUS LAUNCHES SPOT CFR EAST COAST INDIA COAL ASSESSMENTS
COALspot.com: Global energy and commodity news and price reporting agency Argus has announced today that, the company has launched CFR coal assessme ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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