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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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