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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 May 13
THE WORLD LARGEST POWER PLANT COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED 36 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped 36.165* million tons of coal in March 2013.
Ac ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS KEEP BUILDING NEW VESSELS ON THE BACK OF LOWER PRICES AND IMPROVED MARKET PROSPECTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the doom and gloom that the dry bulk market has experienced during the past couple of years and especially during 2012, ship owners have inc ...
Thursday, 09 May 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT USD 8000 DOP ECI - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The atlantic market started to pick up with new orders. The USG-Feast was at USD 20k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The pacific mkt rema ...
Wednesday, 08 May 13
PANAMAX VESSELS PROVE TO BE "STARS OF THE MONTH" FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET DURING APRIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
They have taken a beating on various occasions during the past few years of the dry bulk market's crisis, but the fact remains, that despite the he ...
Tuesday, 07 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS HOLD STEADY WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,975,160 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 6 May 2013, Newcastl ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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