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Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set to become even tighter in the near future once Drummond coal cargoes return to the market (when the strike is resolved) and also due to the very large amount of Brazilian iron ore cargoes that have continued to surface. So far this week, 10 capesize vessels have been chartered to haul Brazilian iron ore cargoes. This is a very large amount, and already exceeds the robust 9 capesize vessels that were chartered to haul Brazilian iron ore cargoes during all of last week.
The last time that 10 or more capesize vessels were chartered to haul iron ore cargoes in a single week was the Week Ending November 16, 2012. Chinese demand for imported iron ore is currently very strong, which is helping capesize rates to surge. However, the capesize market will again benefit from the current level of activity as spot capesize availability will find itself even tighter in the near future. It is extremely encouraging for the capesize market that so many capesize vessels have recently been chartered for long-haul Brazil to China iron ore exports. In addition, Atlantic basin spot capesize availability will become even more tight whenever the Drummond coal strike officially comes to an end.
For the capesize market, near term prospects remain encouraging. There will be fluctuations whenever there are brief dips in Chinese demand, but overall we believe in the weeks and months to come there will be days when average daily capesize rates easily increase by over $3,000 in a single day. That’s the beauty of dry bulk shipping. Demand for vessels is quite inelastic and not very responsive to changes in prices. When a charterer needs a vessel, he (she) needs a vessel. And when spot vessel availability is tight, an environment is created where freight rates are prone to large increases. With some many capesize vessels recently being chartered to haul long-haul Brazilian iron ore cargoes -- and with an increase in Drummond coal cargoes being poised to re-emerge in the market at some point like in the near future -- the already tight capesize market will become even tighter.
By: Jeffrey Landsberg | Managing Director, Commodore Research & Consultancy
About Commodore Research & Consultancy
Commodore Research & Consultancy is an independent New York City-based consultancy that focuses on the global demand, supply, and seaborne trade of industrial and agricultural commodities, with a particular focus on China. Commodore Research & Consultancy's analysts handle a wide variety of consulting requests and custom reports. Commodore Research & Consultancy also offers two standard report subscriptions (Dry Bulk Report Subscription and China Report Subscription).
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here
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Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
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