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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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