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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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