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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
Monday, 18 November 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST ON WEEK; MARGINALLY GAINED ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.25 pmt month on month on Friday 15 Novemb ...
Sunday, 17 November 13
Q4' 14 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.43 PMT (4.34 %) HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 SWAP
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.05 percept d-d on Friday 15 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 16 November 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FIRM DUE TO STRONG COAL ACTIVITIES
COALspot.com: The Cape and Panamax index was down this week and pulling down the BDI by about 5 pct. BDI was closed at 1507 points on Friday 1 ...
Friday, 15 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LINGERING ON, DESPITE PREDICTIONS OF NEW IMMINENT RALLY PRIOR TO THE YEAR'S END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet managed to stage a new comeback after its retreat from the recent multiyear highs. Yesterday, the industry's benchm ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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