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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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