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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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