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Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the freight rate market. This has been the resurgence of newbuilding ordering activity as more and more ship owners sought after good deals to expand their fleets. It has been a direct reversal versus 2012 and comes as a result of owners taking advantage rock bottom prices and extras now been offered by shipyards. This development intitally freightened many market observers who were worried that this new surge of orders would once again "choke" the market and keep up the tonnage oversupply.
However, according to a recent report from shipbroker Intemodal, "taking a close look at the numbers, a slightly different picture starts to emerge. Despite the considerable number of new orders we are still finding ourselves with an ever dropping orderbook both in terms of number of vessels and as a percentage to the active fleet (with only exception being that of Supramaxes which saw a marginal rise in their orderbook during the first 8 months). At the same time and despite the overwhelming deliveries entering active service this year, the charter market has held up considerably well and with the summer lull now looking to be well behind us and a brighter autumn up ahead, it seems that many market players are breathing a sigh of relief that the worst is over and it’s all better days from here on out".
According to George Lazaridis, Research Analyst at Intermodal, "the reality is this optimism needs to be taken with a pinch of restraint. The orderbook may have diminished from its haydays of 2010 but the shipbuilding capacity is still there in its majority, meaning that collectively ship-owners could lead it back up to dangerous levels lured by false pretenses of extraordinarily high earnings.
Having given our word of caution it’s time to get to brass tacks. Are there real opportunities out there for newbuildings or have most of the recent orders been over speculative? The truth is that there are more than a few arguments for placing a newbuilding as things stand now. For one there is the classic argument of better perfor-mance from the new ship designs that are on offer. This is neither here nor there when it comes to arguing for placing a new order. A new order should focus more on covering future demand rather than better competing in an over supplied market", Lazaridis noted.
He added that "tn that respect is where we find our next argument and better placed in our opinion. Demand has been steadily growing over the past 5 years despite the turbulent conditions in the global economy. The developing world has been well primed for further economic growth and as such has not only increased the seaborne trade of dry bulk raw resources, but has also had a positive influence in intra-trade of finished goods between them. Though the latter has been less of a big drive for the market, the former has not only kept things going in the larger sizes but has also open many future possibilities for new size segments and that’s where the key lays in the opinion of many market players. The birth of interest for Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and larger Handies has been mainly due to the fact that these designs have been shaped primarily to take advantage of the potential held by these high growth economies. It’s no surprise that the prime size segment in the dry bulk in terms of new orders this year has been for Ultramaxes, followed by Kamsarmaxes.
Finally, as always we find our old friend cost which has been the main driver for most who tend to see it as an opportunity for arbitrage between prices of today and prices in 24 months or so when the vessel will be ready for delivery. This may well hold but to what extent and is it going to be better than a secondhand vessel that may also have a small positive cash flow from trading to offer besides the positive gain from any increase in prices. Let’s not forget that prices are influenced by earnings though more in the case of the secondhand vessel, while we don’t expect any major trading boom to develop that could drive resale prices to the moon com-pared to a five year old vessel", Lazaridis noted.
Concluding his analysis he noted that "after that we seem to be back to our old friend “future demand” and by that respect there seem to be sufficient reason for the same level of new ordering to continue, no more, no less. So despite the recent hike that has been noted in newbuilding prices there is still more than sufficient sense in placing a new order today provided you have the finance and made due diligence with regards to the design and shipbuilder, cause at the end of the day it doesn’t matter when you place your order, a badly built ship will always be a badly built ship".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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