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Friday, 05 July 13
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS GOING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH - INTERMODAL


The Capesize sector has been one that has gone through a wild rollercoaster of emotions this past decade, ranging from the exuberance witnessed during the boom years of the shipping ''supercycle'' down to the dreadful doldrums during the first half of this year were fixtures were reported at levels well below  OPEX.

It’s also been a sector often closely associated with the Asian Economic Powerhouse, namely China and its seemingly insatiable appetite for development linked raw materials (especially iron ore and coal) which are a gauge to its overall economic development as well as its future prospects.

All this has always held Capes as a bit of a buzzword amongst SnP brokers, while nowadays this has been more so as we have seen an impressive array of recent SnP transactions (mainly second hand but also a significant number of NBs) during the first six months of 2013.

Main interest has been for vessels built between 1997 and 2004 (9-16 years of age), partly due to their relatively lower values compared to what was seen two year back, but also due to the ''enhanced'' prospects brought about the occasional Chinese replenishing of stock-piles (of the most recent have been during the final quarter of 2012 and another which is currently underway).

The order book as it stands today is at levels less daunting than other sectors such as panamaxes, with around 37.45 mill dwt scheduled to be added to the current capacity of 274 mill dwt till 2016. That is equivalent to 14% of the current fleet compared to an order book-to-fleet ratio of  22% seen for Panamaxes.

In terms of numbers, there are a further 80 capes scheduled for delivery within the rest of 2013, 74 set or next year, another 29 or 2015 and beyond.

Norwegian shipping magnate Fredriksen was one of the first to signal the start of the most recent drive or new orders, while his most recently reported order for 2 X 205k dwt VLOC at Bohai shows a clear vote of confidence as to the prospects of the sector.  Some claim that the recent rally in the freight market which caused rates to surge from the depths of US$ 6,000/day that they had been seeing on average this year to climb to the staggering level of US$ 14,866/day which is only a breath away from the psychological barrier of US$ 15,000/day.

It is important to point out that capes started 2012 at approximately US$ 16-18k per day, thereafter plunged down to between US$ 6-4 k per day till Sept/Oct where they staged a recovery and peaked once again at US$ 18,388/day by end Oct where after they nosedived back down to an average of US$ 6k per day with small variations till May 2013 when the most recent rally in freight rates began.

In conclusion and having as a backdrop all the above mentioned regarding more balanced growth and temporarily improvement in the freight market, we have had the following capes changing hand the last month;
the “Mineral Sines” (172kdwt blt 2002 Daewoo) rgn US$ 19.80 mill to a joint venture between Italians and major commodity traders/charterers,
the “Atlantic Princess” (180k dwt blt 2003 Imabari) rgn US$ 20.3 mill with SS/DD due to Greeks
the slightly older “Star Fortune” (170k dwt blt 1999 IHI) rgn US$ 15 mill to Chinese and down to the much older “Noni M” (183k dwt blt 1995 Kawasaki) rgn US$ 10.5 mill to HK Buyers.

Chartering
The Dry Bulk market is going from strength to strength, with the BDI now “flirting” with the 1,200 points level. The rally in the Capesize segment  is still the main driver behind the positive sentiment that has boosted the market, providing a very strong rate reversal, one that most market players expected to take place a bit later in the year.

The Capesize market has had an excellent run throughout the month of June. With charterers getting back in action and at the same time disruptions taking place in Brazilian ports, ones which have only recently started easing a bit, rates for Capes have kept firming this past week, mainly boosted by activity in the 'Atlantic basin where the average rate has now surpassed the $ 15,000/day level, more than doubling since the beginning of the month of June.

Activity in the Atlantic still remains very supportive for  Panamax rates, with shorter tonnage lists in N.Continent, boosting rates for another week, while ex-ECSA cargoes increasing further activity in the area. At the same time things in the  Pacific remain a bit flattish but underlined by improved sentiment overall.

Rates for Supras and Handies have also firmed this week, with cargoes ex-ECSA boosting activity for both segments. The USG area keeps witnessing very good levels of fixtures for Supras, while the  Pacific basin still provides most of the upside momentum for Handies.

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure:
For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various  sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.



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