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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 June 13
U.S. PRODUCED 1.52 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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