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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
 The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DIP 24.79 PER CENT WOW
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports fell 24.79% to 2.33 million tons WoW.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,332,513 tons of coal for the ...
Monday, 01 July 13
12TH CLEAN COAL FORUM INDONESIA 2013
Press Release: Produced by CDMC Events, The 12th Clean Coal Forum Indonesia 2013 will be held on Dec 5-6,2013 in Jakarta, Indonesia. It will generat ...
Monday, 01 July 13
INDIA AND CHINA STILL DOMINATING THE INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORT MARKET
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi types coal exporter shipped 35.83* million tons of coal in May 2013, 1.40 per cent l ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
YEAR 2014 INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 2013 LEVEL
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery have gained 0.08 percent on a day lost on week ...
Sunday, 30 June 13
CAPESIZE RATES SEEN INCREASING ON HIGH DEMAND - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to rise and saw a big gain on Friday. BDI increased 14 per cent week ended 28 June 2013, closed at 1171 points driv ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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