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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
 The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids for 520,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal with calorific value 5,700 kcal/kg on NAR basis f ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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