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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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