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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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