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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
 The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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