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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
Friday, 08 February 13
NORTH P&I CLUB WARNS OF LIQUEFACTION RISK FOR BAUXITE CARGOES
The ‘A’ rated 170 million GT North P&I club has warned shipowners carrying bauxite aluminium ore cargoes that they have the potentia ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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