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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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