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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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