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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong ap ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
COAL PRICES STRUGGLE TO FIRM UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.18 percent week on week and 0.03 percent ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR S7 AND S8 SECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freights are remains weak week ended 31 May 2013, as BDI fell 2.05 pct and closed at 809 points on 31 May 2013.
The Cape ...
Friday, 31 May 13
US PRODUCED 18.5 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 25 MAY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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