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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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