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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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