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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
COAL GASIFICATION
IBC’s Coal Gasification conference explores the opportunities for coal gasification investment and development in Asia.
With depleting dome ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
SUPRAMAX : THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS MOVING ON A POSITIVE PATH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Cape - Despite holding their ground fairly well early on in the week, Capes in the Atlantic basin gave in to the mounting pressure fro ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI
Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
WIJAYA TRI UTAMA PURCHASES MICROCOAL TECHNOLOGIES' CLEAN COAL UPGRADING FACILITY
- First MCI commercial scale application of proprietary microwave technology to upgrade coal thermal output and reduce pollutants
- MicroCoal to re ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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