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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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