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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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