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Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the world, imposing the burning of cleaner marine fuels and thus turning the shipping industry into one with a much lower environmental impact. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Gibson, bunker prices have fluctuated more than two fold in the last five years. "The average price of 380cst this year to date hovers around $635 pmt. The impact of bunker fuels on operational costs is substantial and has caused considerable damage to ship owner’s profitability. However with even tougher regulations and emission targets on the way, how will these changes affect the shipping industry?" asks Gibson.

The shipbroker notes that "as seaborne trade continues to grow, shipping plays a larger part in adding to the world’s ‘greenhouse gases’. Following political pressure to further reduce emissions from shipping , a new set of sulphur requirements within MARPOL Annex VI will be implemented on the 1st January 2015. Permissible sulphur levels in bunker fuel will be capped at 0.10%, from the current maximum of 1.0% within existing Emission Control Areas (ECA).

Although the European bunker market handled previous reductions in sulphur limits much better than expected, a common view is that the same cannot be envisaged in 2015; the UK Chamber of Shipping has said “shipping needs more time to prepare [before the 2015 cap]”, adding that neither time nor sufficient techhnology is currently available to support the changes. The shift in 2015 will mean most ships will use marine gas oil (MGO) while operating in ECAs, instead of heavy fuel oil. The premium of MGO over 1.0% LSFO 380 currrently stands at around 40% in Rotterdam. Although the price of this fuel is hard to project to 2015, it is expected that supply may not grow as quickly as demand and will therefore command an even higher premium during the initial stages after the 2015 inauguration. The increase in products available for export from the USS (see Gibson’s WTR - 15th Mar 2013) could offer the solution to lacking supplies, butt the natio n itself will need morre MGO too meet their own neww ECA requuirements. As various countries in the world compete for global supplies of sub 0.10% fuels, this could provide a boost for the MR tanker market" Gibson said.

It concluded by stating that "the next major issue is the proposed IMO legislation shifting all bunkers to less than 0.5% sulphur, due to be introduced globally in 2020. Lack of investment in Europe’s refining sector suggests it is highly unlikely there will be sufficient availability of low sulphur fuel oil to meet this requirement. The use of new technnologies - like scrubbers and LNG as the main fuel for propulsion -to meet the strict sulphur regulations may offer ship owners an alternative, but the shipping community needs to push the development of such technologies to capitalise on their potential and make them a commercially viable solution. Whilst there is huge uncertainty surrounding the scale of impact the new fuel regulations will have on the shipping industry, it appears the only certainty is that this issue is not going to go away anytime soon", Gibson said.

Meanwhile, in the crude tanker markets this week, in the Middle East, it was an "active week for VLCCs as charterers closed the book on March liftings, and started to tuck in heartily to the April programme. Owners managed to extract some advantage, but it was to a minimal extent, and any hopes for the market reaching critical mass seem rather faint. Rates topped out at WS 37.55 to the East and WS 19 to the West. Suezmaxes found only spasmodic action, and the lack of consistency, and plentiful availability, kept things pegged to around WS 30 West and WS 55 East for the duration. Next week looks set to stay rangebound too. Aframaxes tightened on early positions, allowing rates to creep to 80,000 by WS 85 to Singapore, but will stay at closer to WS 80 deeper into April" Gibson said.

In the North Sea, "as in the Med, the search for replacement tonnage gave Aframax Owners -and rates - a boost to 80,000 by WS 100+ cross UK Cont, and 100,000 by WS 100 also from the Baltic. By the weeks' end, however, Charterers immediate needs seemed satisfied, and owners moved once again onto the defensive. Suezmaxes got the odd knock, but no surprises...135,000 by WS 45 was seen transatlantic for no heat, and US$ 22.7 million paid to Singapore, also without heating costs. VLCCs weren’t left out either, but still slipped lower with a couple of deals reported at US$ 3.8 million for Fuel Oil to Singapore, despite the patchy availability" the London-based shipbroker said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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