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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Saturday, 23 March 13
WORLD COAL TRADE FIRST PASSES 1 BILLION TONS IN 2012 - VEREIN DER KOHLENIMPORTEURE E.V
Press Release: Hard coal imports to Germany on the previous year's level in spite of regenerative energies. Imports for power plants at an all-time ...
Thursday, 21 March 13
HANDY : RBCT ROUNDS FIXED AT $ 9000 + 300K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains firm with cargoes seen to support healthy rates as per last week. The USG-Feast was at USD 25k and Black Sea-Feas ...
Wednesday, 20 March 13
NTPC TO IMPORT SEVEN MILLION TONS COAL FOR FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com : NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest Indian state-owned electric utilities company has awarded&n ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
CHINA GAS PRICE REFORMS AND APAC GAS PRICING - FITCH STREET VIEW
Fitch Ratings says pricing reform in the Chinese gas sector is unlikely to materially impact gas distributors' margins, and low gas prices in the U ...
Tuesday, 19 March 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL BY 4.27 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,365,561 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 March 2013, Newcast ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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