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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Tuesday, 26 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.39 MMT OF COAL W/E 25 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2.396 million tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 25 March 2013, N ...
Monday, 25 March 13
BUNKER FUELS ARE ABOUT TO GET CLEANER, BUT AT WHAT COST? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The cost of bunkers is nowadays the driving force behind most ship owners' major decisions, with regulations bound to change in many parts of the w ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA'S COAL SWAPS FOR Q2 DELIVERY PRICE LOST 7.47 PERCENT PMT M-O-M
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 3.39 percent and CFR South China coal shipment 2.65 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
FREIGHT MARKETS CONTINUED TO FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments except for cape index which softened slightly.
The BDI was up by 4.60 ...
Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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