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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
Friday, 15 February 13
SCRAPPING TO RISE AS BULKER OWNERS SUFFER - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Drewry's latest Dry Bulk Forecaster report suggests that cash-strapped shipowners will scrap younger and younger ships this year as the dry bulk ma ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
HANDY: ATLANTIC "STABLE"; PACIFIC "QUIET" - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic remain stable with rates for FH from USG around USD 18k. The Pacific remains quiet due to Chinese New Year holidays. Rates were ...
Thursday, 14 February 13
BIMCO FORECASTS MOSTLY HIGHER DRY BULK RATES FOR THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Higher steel demand is expected to keep dry bulk rates elevated during the next six weeks, according to the latest BIMCO forecast. The Organization ...
Wednesday, 13 February 13
6TH ANNUAL CBM CONFERENCE
The 6th Annual CBM conference which will be held in Singapore on 18-21 June 201 offers comprehensive insights into leading CBM projects in the Asia- ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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