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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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