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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
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