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Thursday, 20 December 12
CHINA'S IRON ORE AND COAL DEMAND WILL SHAPE THE CAPESIZE DRY BULK TRADE DURING 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the best efforts from ship owners to help alleviate the current tonnage oversupply issue in the dry bulk segment, especially in the larger vessel types of Capesizes, shipbrokers have suggested that it will be the demand aspect of the equation, which will determine whether the market will return to healthier levels during 2013. According to a report from shipbroker firm Intermodal, the rally in charter rates that has been recorded over the past three months has been in high contrast to the overall performance of Capes throughout 2012.
"It's been a completely uninspiring year with the Cape index hovering between 1,000 and 1,500 points for the first 9 months, only managing to break through this range in early October, as a strong drive in iron ore fixtures, mainly supported by the vast stockpiling undertaken by the Chinese, helped push the Index to just over 2,500 points. It is important to point out that we had a peak during November in China’s iron ore imports, which reached their highest level for 2012 and similar only to the volumes seen the same period last year, where rates for capes followed almost the same pattern.
The iron ore market has now turned on its head, as imported ore prices exceed that of the average Chinese produced supplies for the first time since June this year. There is now little reasoning for haste stock piling to take place, especially since prices have reached over $ 124 per dry metric ton, while at the same time arbitrage between local sourced supplies and those shipped from Brazil and Australia is limited. On the plus side much of this firming in prices has been generated by optimism amongst traders that the new improved economic figures coming out of China could propel demand for iron ore much higher over the next couple of months. This has possibly created a speculative sentiment and possibly a situation where we could see a spike in demand within early 2013" wrote Eva Tzima.
She argued that "opportunities have already been unveiled during this final quarter, as the nine-month period of sub-par earnings have started to be reflected in asset values. Despite the overall absence of new orders, newbuilding prices seem to have stopped their drop and are not looking likely to have room to fall much further. On the other side of the equation, we have the fairly strong demo prices on offer keeping the scrap value of a typical capesize bulker (~22,000ldt) well above $ 8.0m. This has created a squeeze in the secondhand market, which, in combination to the drop in prices, means that considering both the newbuilding cost and current scrap value, assets are fairly favorably priced. The most notable example is the case of 15year old vessels which have lately been valued at levels of around $ 11.0m, only 38% higher than their residual scrap value. This has also been heavily reflected in the higher SnP activity noted for 15-20year olds, which accounted for 35% of all cape sales this year".
Concluding, Tzima noted that "we may well have expectations for a slower fleet growth rate of just above 6% next year, however even this may prove to be overwhelming if iron ore and coal seaborne trade keep trending at the same sluggish pace of the first three quarters of 2012. As has been shown in the past 3 months, it all comes down to the support the Chinese government will give to its stimulus plan and by how much this will feed through into the market via growth linked commodities demand and increased infrastructure development" she said.
In terms of newbuilding activity, which is always a determining factor in terms of supply, Intermodal's latest report noted that "there is still some small activity in the newbuilding sector despite the fact that we are approaching the end of the year. It is evident that the wet rather than the dry sector has fed higher activity for the shipbuilding industry this year. With the recent example of Scorpio’s large order reported last week, it is fair to assume that the support from the wet sector has been due to demand for new ECO designs as well as shuttle tankers that have gathered quite a few supporters within the industry. Market sentiment holds the belief that newbuilding prices might have already , or are close to reaching their bottom, especially since steel prices have been firming during the second quarter of the year and one can safely assume that it wont make much economic sense for yards to push their newbuilding prices further down. In terms of reported deals this week, BP has also shaken the wet market with its order last week at STX, Korea of ten Aframaxes for high $50m each and 3 Suezmaxes for high $60 each, for delivery between 2015 an 2016. The vessels are of very high specification including a lot of extras as well as Salt Water Scrubber system in order to comply with tier 3 SOX requirements".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 22 December 12
FALL IN CAPE AND PANAMAX RATES DRAG BDI INDEX - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market further softened this week closing at 700 points (down by 10.71 pct). The cape index continued to fall and w ...
Saturday, 22 December 12
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR PRODUCED 3.2 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN NOVEMBER' 12
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 28.1 million bcm* (+1.8% YoY) of Overburden in November 2012 while coal production was at 3.2 ...
Friday, 21 December 12
JORC CODE, 2012 EDITION NOW FINALIZED
COALspot.com - The JORC Committee has announced that, the completion of the review of the JORC Code of 2012 Edition.
The JORC Code, 2012 Ed ...
Thursday, 20 December 12
COAL CLOSING IN ON OIL AS WORLD'S TOP ENERGY SOURCE BY 2017
COALspot.com - Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’ ...
Tuesday, 18 December 12
NEWCASTLE PORT IN AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 20.19 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 17 DECEMBER 2012
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,269,640 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 17 December 2012, Newc ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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